129773160554687500_227Three conjecture and countermeasure of stock market this week reporter Zhang Houpei guess: stabilising market stopped falling? Probability of realization: 80% reason: last week a-share markets fell back again to "half line" zhixia, tests of the 60-day moving average support potential. Analysts believe that while the future decline of economic growth and growth in profits of listed companies are responsible for impact on the market, butIs the policy now warmer, and deposit reserve rate cut chances are, this will be on the market some support; adjusted index in the three-week, this week is expected to fall to stabilise. Choi Tong securities analyst Chen Jian said, because of the power of this rally based on investor expectations of monetary and fiscal policy relaxed on the basis of stabilising and no obvious recovery in the real economyAgo, such is expected to persist. March of Chinese PMI preview 48.1 per cent, for 4 months minimum, increasing the likelihood that policies to further relax, expected may cut interest rates in the first half, two to three years will be lowered deposit rates.
Should not be too pessimistic about market trends. However, there are also people in the relatively cautious trend continues this week. Shenyin wanguo market researchDeputy Director Qian Qimin believes that as the market continued down the center of gravity, long enthusiasm dissipated, cautious wait-and-see mood prevail. Fundamental aspects, economic data are not ideal, investment, consumption, and trade growth rate continued to drop, HSBC PMI initial accident March down and create a four-month low, and to expand the pilot information, such as real estate taxes, which suggests that early rallyIn addition to technical factors, macroeconomic aspects have not been validated and supported, Outlook will still shock dip, continuous adjustments.
Strategy: short-term grasping ability would be high parabolic bargain, reduction of high positions on high short-term gains of large stocks in the hands, reducing positions.
Suspect two: rebound in Bank shares took the lead in? Probability of realization: 90% the specific reasons:Last week most of the decline in Bank shares at about 1.5%, performed better than the Shanghai composite index 2.3% for the same period decreased.
Industry experience, it banks spreads rose sharply in the first quarter may have raised its final results for the year, based on this is expected, rebound in bank stocks lead to stabilisation in big city is the probability of the event. Huatai joint Dai Zhifeng, an analyst noted that rise in a-share markets some time ago,Is oversold and liquidity is expected to turn in early market sentiment brought about by the background of good repair, and the level of risk appetite diminished. Since February, the strong early performance of bank stocks, compared with other good elastic plate, clearly weaker. But the economic decline, and under the background of economic transformation does not have clear expectations about the future, trending opportunity; under pressure on the supply side, and small-capValuation upside is unlikely.
Market sentiment after the fall, determine the profit growth and stable return on investment banking unit attracted market attention again. Sinolink securities analysts believe that, regardless of the portrait and historical valuation comparison, comparison of transverse and h-share valuation levels, or with a comparison of theoretical valuation levels corresponding to the profitability of listed banks, current public bank 2011Year 1.4 times book 9 times and Frank times price-earnings ratio is underestimated the level and operating environment for banks and earnings growth this year is expected to clear, along with the tightening of monetary policy implementation and expected economic growth expected to clear, bank stocks should be valued fix. Strategies: Analysts recommend that value investors choose banks with relatively high flexibility, such as Societe Generale Bank, Minsheng Bank andChina Merchants Bank.
Guess three: stagflation stocks beat the market? Probability of realization: 80% the specific reasons: in stock, in each round of rally, stocks rise for different gains will converge, rose the first rose up after all. Although the recent three-week market performance is not satisfactory, but the shocks in the market, stocks go to the trend of the early period of stagnation. As of FridayBrilliant technology rose plate, is a former stagnation in the stocks, similar gains over 5% huace film and television. In fact
tera power leveling, judging from past experience, in a rally in high ready to shock consolidation when stagflation unit back up all took turns to play. Industry analysts say that, as the index of shocks, hotspot or to the stagnation of the market share transfers
tera gold, setFull and early gained modest stagflation unit "to" performance time is highly likely.
Therefore, present in shock, stagflation unit is no doubt easier to outperform the market. What then is the kind of stagflation unit it is those possible-"rose"? Industry proposal, first of all, turnover, stock exchange rate effective at the bottom to choose Zoom in individual stocks, these stocks fundsAttention sold relatively active, will not be super cool unit. Secondly, should be avoided as far as possible is not fully changed hands at the bottom, lower trading volume of the company's stock. Finally
tera gold, based on trading volume is necessary to have a large market, and only fully changed hands at the bottom, the main force to absorb enough chips, is the subject of intense lifting. Therefore, you can focus on those lowVolume of stocks.
����Strategy: stagflation unit to "fill up" how high, often depends on changes in the fundamentals of it, therefore in operation should select those relatively low valuations, clear performance of a unit to be configured. Online statement Gold: gold online reprint of the above content, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investors ' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. InvestorsOperation at your own risk.
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